3 Reasons Why Investors Should Stay Away From Alibaba Stock Right Now

Core Insights - Alibaba Group (BABA) presents a concerning investment picture with revenue growth of 7% year over year to RMB236.5 billion and adjusted EBITA gains of 36% in the last quarter, but deeper financial analysis reveals troubling trends that suggest caution for potential investors in 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 18.1% over the past 30 days to $8.58 per share, indicating market pessimism regarding Alibaba's growth trajectory [2] - Free cash flow has dramatically deteriorated, plummeting 76% to RMB3.7 billion, raising questions about the quality of earnings and operational efficiency despite a 7% revenue growth [3][8] - Alibaba has spent $11.9 billion on share repurchases in fiscal 2025, reducing share count by 5.1%, which suggests poor capital allocation decisions as free cash flow evaporates [4] Growth Trends - The company is experiencing decelerating growth momentum, with overall revenue growth slowing to 7%, a significant decline from historical double-digit growth rates [5][8] - Despite investments in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure, the growth in critical revenue streams is slowing, with cloud revenue growth at 18% and customer management revenue growth at 12% [5][6] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in China's e-commerce and cloud markets has intensified, with rivals like ByteDance and Tencent eroding Alibaba's market share, particularly in its core platforms Taobao and Tmall [7][11] - International competition from cloud providers like Microsoft and Amazon is also increasing, further challenging Alibaba's market position [11] Valuation Concerns - Alibaba continues to trade at a premium valuation despite its challenges, with a Value Score of C indicating that the stock is not cheap relative to its fundamentals [10] - The stock has generated only 1.1% returns over the past three months, underperforming both the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector [11] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China create regulatory uncertainty for Chinese technology companies, leading to potential delisting risks and scrutiny of data practices [15] - Broader economic challenges in China, including slowing consumer spending and deflationary pressures, create a difficult operating environment for e-commerce companies [16]