ZACKS·2025-07-22 18:06Core Insights - The J.M. Smucker Company's coffee prices are significantly influenced by raw ingredient costs, tariffs, changing consumer patterns, and market volatility [1] - The company has raised coffee prices to address rising import costs, particularly due to tariffs, and has implemented pricing actions across its coffee portfolio [2][9] Pricing and Sales Performance - The primary driver for the price increase is the green coffee portfolio, with additional pricing actions in the Frozen Handheld and Spreads categories to offset rising costs [2] - In Q4 FY25, U.S. Retail Coffee segment sales increased by 11% due to higher net price realization, while volume/mix remained neutral [2][9] Earnings Outlook - Management indicated that EPS growth for fiscal 2026 would have surpassed expectations if not for high green coffee costs, noting an 80-cent impact from coffee inflation and pricing, and a 25-cent impact from tariffs [3] - The fiscal 2026 outlook anticipates approximately 20% net pricing, which may lead to a 10% decline in volumes due to price elasticity of demand [4] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors include Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Starbucks Corporation, both of which are actively pursuing strategies to enhance their market positions [5][7] - Keurig Dr Pepper has experienced a decline in its coffee segment, while Starbucks is focusing on revitalizing operations and expanding its market share through various strategic initiatives [6][7] Valuation and Estimates - The J.M. Smucker stock has decreased by 1.9% year-to-date, compared to a 3.9% decline in the industry [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.16X, below the industry average of 16.04X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 EPS suggests a year-over-year decline of 9.7%, while fiscal 2027 indicates an 8.7% growth [11]