氧化铝价格近期强势上扬

Group 1: Price Trends - The price of alumina has recently shown strong upward momentum, with the main futures contract rising by 8.39% and 6.07% on July 21 and 22, respectively, resulting in a total increase of 300 yuan per ton, reaching 3513 yuan per ton [3] - In the spot market, alumina prices have also increased, with average price rises of 25 to 50 yuan per ton across various regions, including a 25 yuan increase in Guangxi and a 50 yuan increase in Henan [3] - Earlier this year, alumina prices peaked above 5000 yuan per ton in January but fell below 3000 yuan per ton by early April, marking a decline of over 40% [4] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent price surge is closely linked to policy signals indicating a tightening of supply, particularly in key industries such as steel and non-ferrous metals [3] - Market sentiment has been buoyed by expectations of capacity elimination in alumina production, leading to increased inquiries and a strong performance in the spot market [3] - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have contributed to a bullish sentiment among traders, resulting in price increases and reluctance to sell [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Downstream electrolytic aluminum companies have benefited from the alumina price decline, with Yun Aluminum Co. expecting a profit of 2.7 to 2.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 7.19% to 11.16% [4] - Other companies, such as Jiaozuo Wanfang and Zhongfu Industrial, also reported significant profit increases, with expected profits of 500 to 560 million yuan and 680 to 720 million yuan, respectively, driven by lower costs and higher sales prices [4] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The weighted average cost of alumina is currently estimated at 2842 yuan per ton, with a theoretical profit of approximately 340 yuan per ton, indicating that the industry is operating at a profitable level [5] - As the cost of raw materials continues to decline, overall production costs are expected to decrease further [5] - Short-term market sentiment remains strong due to policy expectations and tight supply, but medium-term price increases may be limited by fundamental market conditions [5]