氧化铝期价两日涨超14% 基本面隐忧或限制上行空间

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in alumina prices, with a significant increase observed in July 2023, where prices rose by 8.39% on July 21 and 6.07% on July 22, reaching a peak of 3577 yuan/ton from 2818 yuan/ton in mid-June, marking an increase of nearly 27% over a month [1][2] - The domestic metallurgical-grade alumina spot price averaged 3204.9 yuan/ton on July 22, reflecting a 2.99% increase from early July, but a 17.99% decrease compared to the same period last year, indicating a mixed performance in the market [1] - Factors contributing to the recent price increase include tight domestic supply, disturbances in raw material mining, and improved macroeconomic sentiment, with many alumina companies maintaining a focus on long-term contracts due to reduced output from maintenance and production cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum industry saw its profits reach a three-year high in June 2023, with an average complete cost of 16,200 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of 4,372 yuan/ton, which expanded by 357 yuan/ton from the previous month, driven by rising aluminum prices and stable demand [2] - Despite the recent price recovery in alumina futures, analysts believe that the market will experience a supply surplus due to the commissioning of new projects, which may lead to weaker price performance in 2025 compared to the high levels seen in 2024 [2][3] - Short-term expectations indicate that tight alumina supply and optimistic policy-driven sentiment may support continued strong performance in spot prices, but a shift to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic is anticipated in the latter half of 2025 [3]