黑色系商品久违爆发 焦炭第二、三轮提价箭在弦上

Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke prices have reached near ten-year lows this year, but there has been a significant market recovery since July, with expectations for further price increases by the end of the month [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The black commodity market has seen a strong rally, with coking coal and coke futures rising approximately 16% and 13% respectively over two trading days, while downstream rebar and hot-rolled coil futures increased by over 5% [1]. - In June, coking coal and coke prices hit their lowest points since 2016, with coking coal at 709 yuan/ton and coke at 1280.5 yuan/ton [1][3]. - The second quarter of this year saw a decline in coke prices, with a cumulative drop of 220 to 260 yuan/ton, leading to a 10.15% decrease from April to June [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coking coal market has shown signs of recovery since July, with prices for low-sulfur coking coal rising by 20 yuan/ton to 1320 yuan/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - The recent price increases in coking coal have directly influenced the prices of downstream products [5]. - The overall supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in the short term, while demand is anticipated to improve due to seasonal factors and economic policies [10][11]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - The recent price recovery in black commodities is supported by government policies aimed at reducing low-price competition and promoting quality improvements in products [6]. - The central government has initiated measures to stabilize growth in key industries, which is expected to positively impact demand for commodities [7]. - The market anticipates that fiscal policies will strengthen in the second half of the year, particularly in investment, which will further enhance demand for commodities [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the prices of coking coal and coke will maintain a strong upward trend in the third quarter, supported by both cost and demand factors [10][11]. - The overall supply of coke is expected to have limited growth, while demand may increase, tightening the supply-demand balance and supporting higher prices [11]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while there is potential for price increases, caution is advised due to the possibility of corrections in the future [11].