市场押注特朗普或将任命“鸽派”美联储主席 美债期权现看涨倾向

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury options market shows a bullish trend amid speculation that Trump may appoint a "dovish" successor to current Fed Chair Powell, leading to a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The benchmark Treasury yield has retreated from previous highs, reflecting a change in investor sentiment as options trading indicates a bullish outlook [1] - Following reports of potential changes in Fed leadership, the 30-year Treasury yield peaked at 5.07% on July 16, the highest since May [1] - The White House clarified that Trump does not intend to replace Powell before his term ends in May next year, alleviating market concerns and prompting a rebound in long-term Treasuries [1] Group 2: Fed Policy and Investor Sentiment - Powell indicated that he would assess the impact of Trump's new tariff policies on the economy before considering rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the market [1] - Fed Governor Waller's rare suggestion for a rate cut in July has heightened attention on internal disagreements within the Fed [2] Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - The risk premium for 30-year Treasury put options has decreased as yields fell to around 4.9% by July 22, indicating reduced investor concern over significant declines [2] - A significant number of bullish bets on 10-year Treasury futures were observed, with approximately 54,000 September call options traded, totaling a premium of about $23 million [5] Group 4: Position Adjustments - A survey by JPMorgan revealed an increase in both long and short positions in U.S. Treasuries, with a decrease in neutral positions, indicating a more divided market stance [5] - According to CFTC data, asset managers reduced net long positions across most U.S. Treasury futures, particularly in the 5-year to ultra-long maturities, with a market value sensitivity of approximately $1.64 million per basis point [8] - Leveraged funds began to cover short positions in 10-year Treasuries, with a reduction in position value of about $5.6 million per basis point change in rates, suggesting a shift towards more neutral strategies [10]