【环时深度】民粹政党选举大胜，反建制浪潮“登陆”日本？

Core Points - The rise of the populist party "Reiwa Shinsengumi" in Japan reflects public dissatisfaction with the current political landscape and economic conditions, gaining significant support by promoting a "Japan First" agenda [1][5][11] - The party's controversial statements and policies, including anti-immigration sentiments and a rejection of gender equality initiatives, have sparked both support and opposition among the electorate [3][4][9] - The party's success in recent elections indicates a shift in Japanese political dynamics, with traditional parties losing ground to new populist movements [11][12][13] Group 1: Party Background and Growth - "Reiwa Shinsengumi" was established in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, attracting initial support through social media and grassroots mobilization, growing from 2,800 followers to 460,000 on YouTube [2] - The party gained one seat in the 2022 Senate elections and three seats in the 2024 House elections, totaling 140 members including local councilors [2] - The party's slogan "Japan First" resonates with voters feeling neglected by mainstream parties, particularly in the context of rising living costs and dissatisfaction with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [5][8] Group 2: Political Impact and Public Sentiment - The party's rise is partly attributed to a backlash against the LDP's perceived liberalization and failure to address nationalistic sentiments among conservative voters [5][11] - Polls indicate strong support for the party among younger voters aged 18 to 30, while older demographics remain more aligned with traditional parties [4][12] - The party's anti-immigration stance and claims of rising crime rates linked to foreigners have fueled public anxiety, allowing it to capitalize on existing fears [3][8][9] Group 3: Future Implications - The emergence of "Reiwa Shinsengumi" may signal a long-term shift towards right-wing populism in Japan, challenging the historical dominance of the LDP [11][14] - The party's influence could reshape Japan's political discourse, particularly regarding immigration and foreign relations, as it seeks to align with nationalist sentiments [13][14] - Observers note that while the party has gained traction, its long-term sustainability remains uncertain, as past populist movements in Japan have struggled to maintain momentum [14]