“8个月后下台”！特朗普再轰鲍威尔

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are increasing, leading to a shift in bond market trading towards a steeper yield curve [1] Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell, stating he is performing poorly and suggesting interest rates should be lowered by at least 3 percentage points [2] - Trump indicated that Powell would leave his position in eight months, which raises questions about the timing and implications for monetary policy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Sentiment - A fake resignation letter attributed to Powell caused temporary market volatility, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to Powell's potential departure [3] - Analysts noted that despite the letter being debunked, the market's reaction underscores heightened concerns about Powell's tenure [3] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - Deutsche Bank strategists suggest that if the Fed faces more political interference, a targeted hedge would be to engage in steepening trades, betting on short-term rates falling while long-term rates rise [4] - The spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has widened to nearly 100 basis points, the highest since 2021, indicating market expectations for rising long-term rates [4] Group 4: Inflation Expectations - Goldman Sachs noted that there is a growing divergence between market-based inflation indicators and the 2-year risk-free rate, suggesting investor concerns about long-term inflation expectations [4] - Despite these concerns, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 56% probability of a rate cut [4][5] Group 5: Broader Market Implications - The 30-year Treasury yield has risen significantly since July, surpassing 5% for the first time this year, indicating a market reassessment of the Fed's policy direction amid political uncertainties [5] - Increased trading volume and volatility in Treasury futures reflect the market's recalibration in response to potential shifts in Fed policy and rising political uncertainty [5]