美股市场呈现分化格局，贸易局势再添新变数

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed a clear divergence on July 22, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.4% to 40,974.97 points, and the S&P 500 slightly increasing by 0.06% to a record high of 5,675.11 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.39% to 18,503.85 points [1] - Energy stocks led the market with a 1.7% increase, with ExxonMobil rising 2.1% to a 52-week high [1] - The technology sector exhibited significant internal divergence, with Tesla up 1.2% to $178.6, while Nvidia fell 2.1% to $123.7, and Broadcom dropped 3.2% to $171.5, reflecting concerns over slowing demand for AI chips [1] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged 1.7% to 7,345.6 points, driven by strong performances in the electric vehicle sector, with NIO soaring 10.2% to $5.8, Li Auto up 1.3% to $21.8, and Xpeng rising 3.1% to $8.2 [2] - Internet giants also saw gains, with Baidu up 4.2% to $95.6, Pinduoduo rising 3.4% to $142.3, and JD.com increasing 1.2% to $33.7, attributed to positive signals from Chinese regulators [2] Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - President Trump indicated that the current interest rates are too high, suggesting a reduction of 300 basis points, which has led to increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra reinforced this sentiment, stating that inflation pressures have eased significantly, with June CPI rising 3% year-on-year, close to target levels [3] Trade Agreements - Significant trade agreements were announced, including a "non-symmetric" trade deal with the Philippines, involving a 19% uniform tariff on U.S. imports while the Philippines will have zero tariffs on U.S. goods [4] - The U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement includes Indonesia supplying key minerals to the U.S. and committing to purchase at least 200 Boeing aircraft over five years [4] Market Reactions - Following the trade agreements, the Philippine PSE Composite Index futures fell 1.8%, and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index futures dropped 1.3% [5] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 104.5, and the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.25% [5] Economic Data and Investor Sentiment - Investors are closely watching upcoming economic data, including the preliminary Q2 GDP and June core PCE price index, with expectations of a 2.0% annualized growth rate for GDP [6] - The current economic policy environment is prompting institutional investors to adjust asset allocation strategies, with Morgan Stanley reducing U.S. equity allocations from 62% to 58% [6] Company Earnings and Market Trends - Tesla is set to release its Q2 earnings, with expectations of $24.5 billion in revenue and a potential recovery in gross margin to 18.5% [7] - The earnings season for tech giants is underway, with Microsoft, Google, and Meta expected to report soon, while the S&P 500 tech sector is projected to see an 8.2% year-on-year decline in earnings [7] Bond and Commodity Markets - The yield curve between 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds has narrowed to 10 basis points, indicating a market expectation of economic soft landing [8] - Gold prices are hovering around $2,400 per ounce, while WTI crude oil near-month contracts rose 1.2% to $78.5 per barrel, reflecting market concerns over long-term supply-demand balance [8]