“反内卷”纵深推进，下半年哪些板块可能受益？丨高景气行业探究

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" trend has become a market focus and policy priority, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planning to issue growth stabilization plans for industries such as machinery and automobiles, which is expected to boost thematic market trends [1] Historical Insights: Supply-Side Reform Experience - Historical supply-side reforms show that market acceptance of policy effects tends to lag, requiring concrete policy implementation or increased intensity for market reactions [2] - Key signals for price increases in cyclical industries are improvements in fundamentals rather than mere reductions in output, with industrial price increases and capacity utilization rates being critical indicators [2] - Demand resonance can broaden the beneficiary scope, with directly impacted sectors expanding to include a wider range of industries if demand-side support is present [2] Comparison of "Anti-Involution" and Supply-Side Reform - Both "anti-involution" and supply-side reforms arise from structural oversupply environments, with significant pressure on the supply side and prolonged negative growth in PPI since October 2022 [3][4] - The current "anti-involution" policies cover a broader range of industries and aim for higher-level goals compared to previous supply-side reforms [3][4] Policy Direction: Industry-Specific Measures and Key Focus Areas - The "anti-involution" policies are accelerating, with recent meetings emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, with industries like cement and photovoltaics already initiating self-discipline measures [5][11] Industry Opportunities and ETF Allocation Strategies - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to accelerate industry clearing, improving profitability and market performance, particularly in sectors with significant improvement potential before supply clearing [7] - Specific sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce are highlighted for potential investment opportunities through corresponding ETFs [20] Sector-Specific Insights - Chemicals: The sector is expected to benefit from the exit of backward production capacity and a shift towards R&D and quality improvement, with industry associations already taking self-discipline actions [11] - Non-Ferrous Metals: The sector faces significant overcapacity issues, with policies aimed at controlling midstream capacity growth to restore processing profits [10] - New Energy Vehicles: The production and sales gap is narrowing, indicating initial policy effects, although profit margin improvements are still lagging [15] - E-commerce: The industry is transitioning from low-price competition to differentiated competition, driven by policy guidance and platform strategy adjustments [18]