短纤：供需预期偏弱 加工费修复空间有限

Supply and Demand - As of July 18, some factories have reduced production, leading to a decline in short fiber operating rates to approximately 89.5%, a decrease of 2.8% [3] - Downstream demand for polyester yarn is weak, with reduced orders for sewing thread and an accelerated pace of inventory accumulation in factories [3] - Polyester-cotton yarn sales remain stable, but inventory levels are high [3] Profitability - As of July 22, the cash processing fee for short fibers is around 987 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for PF2509 and PF2510 contracts are 895 CNY/ton and 960 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Market Outlook - Despite short fiber factories planning production cuts in July, weak terminal demand, high temperatures, and elevated finished goods inventory are leading to increased production cuts among downstream yarn factories [4] - The overall supply and demand for short fibers are weak, with no significant drivers, and absolute prices are fluctuating with raw material prices [4] - The processing fee for PF contracts is expected to fluctuate within the range of 800-1100 CNY/ton, with limited upward or downward drivers [4] Spot Market - On July 22, the short-term futures for direct-spun polyester saw a slight increase, with factory quotes remaining stable and transactions being negotiated at discounts [1] - The average sales rate for direct-spun polyester was 55% by 3:00 PM, with some factories reporting rates of 70%, 20%, 50%, and others [1]