中信里昂：降阿里美股目标价6% 由高确信跑赢大市降至跑赢大市

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities has downgraded Alibaba's (BABA.N) target price by 6% from $165 to $155, and its rating from "High Conviction Outperform" to "Outperform" due to anticipated declines in adjusted net profit for fiscal years 2025-2026 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Citic Securities forecasts a 2.4% year-on-year increase in Alibaba's total revenue for the quarter ending June 30, reaching 249.2 billion RMB [1] - If excluding the impact of divestitures, revenue growth could be approximately 10% year-on-year, driven by steady growth in customer management revenue (CMR) from Taobao and Tmall, international retail, and Alibaba Cloud [1] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline by 16.3% year-on-year to 37.7 billion RMB, with a profit margin decrease of 3.4 percentage points to 15.1% [1] - The profit impact may be more significant for the quarter ending September 30 [1]