金十整理：美日好不容易谈拢了，市场却难当“乐天派”，政治风险将成关键变量？

Agreement Details - The steel and aluminum tariffs will remain unchanged at 50% [1] - The reciprocal tariff imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%, and the auto tariff will also be lowered to 15% [1] - Japan is expected to increase imports of US rice within the established minimum import quota [1] - Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with the US expected to receive 90% of the profits [1] Market Reactions - Commonwealth Bank noted that the tariffs could put pressure on Japan's fiscal outlook, potentially affecting Japanese government bonds and the yen [1] - Citibank suggested that the trade agreement could pave the way for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates earlier than currently anticipated [1] - Otus Consulting indicated that the agreement is a timely boost for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the Liberal Democratic Party, alleviating market concerns [1] - Mitsubishi UFJ stated that the agreement could support the yen's performance, but political uncertainties in Japan may dampen investor sentiment [1] - OCBC Bank highlighted that the yen still faces political risks and potential changes in Japan's credit rating following the trade agreement [1] Additional Insights - ANZ mentioned that the yen is unlikely to see sustained significant gains from the trade agreement, as tariffs pose a negative growth constraint on the Japanese economy [2] - Saxo Bank characterized the $550 billion investment as a political show, while the reduction of tariffs from 25% to 15% is meaningful and may boost sentiment in Japan's export-driven sectors [2] - Sony Financial Group described the trade agreement as mixed news for the Japanese stock market, noting that while the 15% tariff is manageable, the $550 billion investment could lead to capital outflows [2] - SBI Shinsei Bank indicated that the 15% tariff rate is within the Bank of Japan's expectations, and if corporate earnings perform well from April to June, a rate hike could occur as early as October [2] - Sumitomo Mitsui stated that the agreement is positive for the Japanese economy, but the impact of political instability is more significant, suggesting continued pressure on the yen [2] - TD Securities noted that while the market views the agreement as an unexpected positive, Trump's demand for Japan to open its agricultural market poses a potential risk that could further destabilize Japan's already fragile political situation [2]