澳联储2026年降息路径浮现：经济学家预测三次降息至3.1% 宽松节奏审慎落后于全球同行

Group 1 - Economists predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may complete three rate cuts by early 2026, following two previous cuts, aligning with market pricing [1] - The median forecast from 40 economists indicates that the RBA will lower the cash rate from the current 3.85% to 3.1% in the first quarter of 2026, entering a policy observation period thereafter [1] - The RBA's easing pace is more cautious compared to central banks in the UK, Canada, and New Zealand, which are also implementing rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Following the RBA's unexpected decision to maintain rates, there is a divergence in market expectations regarding future rate cuts, with some institutions predicting a slowdown in the easing cycle [3] - The unemployment rate in Australia unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, a four-year high, primarily due to stagnant hiring activity, although the annual employment growth rate remains at 2% [3] - Some analysts, including those from major banks, anticipate that the RBA will only implement two more rate cuts, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [3]