Core Insights - Brazil's oil production is projected to peak by 2030 and may decline by half by 2040, potentially leading to the country becoming a net oil importer by the 2030s due to structural, policy, and technological limitations [1][2] - The lifecycle of Brazil's conventional oil fields is typically 27 to 30 years, with existing fields nearing maturity and new resource development not yet established to maintain current production levels [2] - There is a call for the Brazilian government to expedite oil and gas block bidding processes and optimize regulatory frameworks to attract advanced extraction technologies, such as hydraulic fracturing [2] Industry Analysis - Brazil's oil production is constrained by high extraction costs, technical requirements, and outdated institutional reforms, unlike the U.S. which has benefited from the shale oil revolution [1][2] - The Campos Basin, which began production in 1977, is reaching maturity, and the pre-salt fields developed in 2008 are expected to enter a phase of production decline in the coming years [2] - Despite a projected peak production of 3.697 million barrels per day in May 2024, Brazil's production growth lacks sustainability [2] Future Outlook - There is potential for Brazil to remain a stable supplier in the global energy market if institutional barriers are addressed and technological investments are strengthened [3]
【环球财经】专家：巴西石油产量增长前景受限 未来或将转为石油净进口国
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-23 05:17