Core Viewpoint - The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity for Australia shows a declining growth rate, indicating a potential economic slowdown in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 6-month annualized growth rate of the Leading Index fell to 0.03% in June 2025, while the May growth rate was revised from -0.08% to 0.11% [1]. - The forecast for Australia's economic growth in 2025 is only 1.7%, slightly above the 1.3% expected for 2024, but still disappointing compared to the historical average growth rate of 2% over the past 20 years [1]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The primary drag on the Leading Index growth rate in June was the decline in commodity prices, which has negatively impacted the index by 0.24 percentage points since December of the previous year [2]. - Factors contributing to the weakness in commodity prices include a 5.3% drop in commodity prices priced in USD and a 2.6% increase in the AUD/USD exchange rate [2]. - The total hours worked in the Australian labor market and consumer expectations have also weakened, further affecting the Leading Index growth rate [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the US economy experiences a slowdown or if financial markets face another sell-off, the Leading Index growth rate in Australia may fall into negative territory [2]. - Conversely, if the upcoming inflation data for Q2 shows a decline, it could pave the way for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in August [2]. - The RBA is expected to follow a gradual easing cycle, with two additional 25 basis point cuts anticipated in the first half of 2026 [2].
【环球财经】6月澳大利亚经济活动领先指数增长率继续下降 经济复苏趋势陷入停滞
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-23 05:45