“反内卷”预期点燃多头情绪，焦煤涨停创5个月新高、多晶硅月涨60%

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of "anti-involution" policies is driving a significant rally in the domestic industrial commodity futures market, with various products experiencing substantial price increases. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 23, multiple commodity futures, including polysilicon, coking coal, and coke, saw substantial gains, with polysilicon futures reaching a new high of 5.3165 yuan/ton [1] - Polysilicon futures have recorded a cumulative increase of over 60% for the month, with a weekly increase exceeding 19% [2] - Coking coal futures also experienced a surge, with the main contract reaching a five-month high of 1135.5 yuan/ton [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The market sentiment has shifted positively due to anticipated policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to release a work plan focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity in ten key industries [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the positive market sentiment, there are concerns regarding the actual supply-demand balance, particularly in the polysilicon market, where the supply-demand contradiction remains unresolved [4] - Current market conditions indicate that while polysilicon prices are rising, the overall demand from downstream sectors is still weak, leading to cautious optimism about the sustainability of the price increases [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current rally is driven by policy expectations, the actual impact of these policies on supply and demand will be critical in determining the market's future trajectory [4][6] - The coal and coke markets are expected to transition from a state of oversupply to a more balanced condition, supported by high profits in steel production [3]