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国泰海通:疆内水泥需求有望受益中吉乌铁路 推荐青松建化(600425.SH)等
智通财经网·2025-07-23 05:52

Group 1 - The cement industry in Xinjiang is rated "overweight" by Guotai Junan, benefiting from geographical advantages and better price maintenance compared to the national average [1] - In the first half of 2025, Xinjiang's fixed asset investment is expected to grow by 13.0%, with cement production reaching 19.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, outperforming the national growth rate by 9.7 percentage points [1] - The supply side in Xinjiang is stable, with a significant reduction in cross-regional cement flow, leading to better price maintenance, with prices in southern Xinjiang expected to remain at 470 yuan per ton compared to 350-430 yuan in East China [1] Group 2 - The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway has officially commenced construction, with the Kyrgyz section expected to generate a cement demand of 400-600 million tons [2] - The total cement demand from the Kyrgyz section is estimated at 3.05-4.27 million tons, while the Chinese section is expected to require 1.49-2.13 million tons, totaling 4.54-6.40 million tons [2] - The annualized cement demand from both sections is projected to be 810,000 to 1.14 million tons [2] Group 3 - The ongoing construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is favorable for local Kyrgyz cement producers and Xinjiang cement companies due to insufficient local production capacity [3] - Xinjiang cement companies are expected to benefit from increased exports, with Qingsong Jianhua already exporting 42,000 tons of cement to Kyrgyzstan for railway construction in 2025 [3] - The construction of the Chinese section of the railway, which is entirely within Xinjiang, is anticipated to enhance the capacity utilization of local cement enterprises [3]