通胀压力持续攀升 美联储政策前景更趋复杂

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite rising calls for interest rate cuts from President Trump and speculation about the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the Fed's policy rate outlook remains largely unchanged due to increasing inflation pressures [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, as inflation data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.4% to 2.7% in June [2] - The trend of declining commodity prices is reversing, contributing to overall inflation and suggesting that businesses may be passing some costs onto consumers [2] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that inflation may be at a "turning point," with nearly half of the goods experiencing annualized price increases of 5% or more, double the rate from January [2] - Fed officials project that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will rise by 3% by the end of the year, but they only anticipate a 0.5 percentage point rate cut, which is significantly less than market expectations [2] - There is a general consensus among Fed officials against aggressive rate cuts, maintaining a cautious stance amid ongoing inflationary pressures [2] Group 3 - The US dollar index is facing key resistance in the 97.80-98.00 range, which coincides with recent highs and the upper boundary of a descending wedge pattern, creating multiple technical pressure points [3] - Momentum indicators show mild bullish signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovering to near the neutral zone of 50, indicating a restoration of market momentum, though it has not yet reached overbought conditions [3]