“见证历史”！多晶硅期货连续二天触及涨停，月涨幅超50%，背后受何驱动

Core Viewpoint - The surge in polysilicon futures prices has exceeded 50% since July, significantly outpacing other commodity futures such as coking coal and glass, indicating a strong market trend driven by various factors [1][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of July 23, the main contract for polysilicon futures reached a peak price of 53,165 yuan/ton, with a subsequent slight decline to 52,415 yuan/ton, maintaining a rise of over 10% [1]. - The current futures price has surpassed the spot market price range, which was reported between 40,000 yuan/ton and 49,000 yuan/ton for N-type polysilicon, with an average price of 41,700 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in polysilicon prices is supported by a notable rise in transaction volumes, with around six companies securing new orders, indicating a shift from a previously cautious market stance [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon has decreased significantly due to increased demand from downstream companies, with production expected to be around 105,000 tons in July and slightly increasing to 110,000 tons in August [4]. Group 3: Industry Context - Polysilicon is a critical upstream component of the photovoltaic industry, with six major companies accounting for nearly 80% of total production capacity [5]. - The current market dynamics are influenced by a broader industry trend towards "anti-involution," with expectations of government measures to address low-price competition and promote high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector [7].