特朗普敲定美日汽车关税15%，亚洲贸易格局“新常态”轮廓初显

Group 1 - The recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, as well as the Philippines and Indonesia, outline new tariff structures, with Japan facing a 15% tariff on imports, particularly automobiles, which are a significant part of the US-Japan trade deficit [1][2] - The agreements indicate a shift towards a new normal in tariff levels, with 10% becoming the new baseline for zero tariffs, and the potential for other countries to adopt similar rates [1][3] - The agreements have led to a positive reaction in Asian stock markets, with significant gains observed, particularly in Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which rose by 3.2% [2] Group 2 - Despite the agreements providing some relief, key issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding potential tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are critical for economies like Taiwan and India [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has been more detrimental to investment than the tariffs themselves, with the ASEAN manufacturing sector showing signs of significant weakness, including a drop in new orders and increased layoffs [3] - The anticipated increase in tariffs may lead to inflationary pressures in the US economy, with Goldman Sachs economists predicting a rise in the baseline tariff rate from 10% to 15% [4]