相关通知属实！反内卷之风吹向煤炭领域，行业后市如何看？

Group 1 - The National Energy Administration has announced a notification to promote stable coal supply, indicating a generally loose coal supply-demand situation in the country this year, with prices continuing to decline [1] - Coal stocks and futures surged following rumors of coal mine production suspensions, with major coal companies experiencing significant stock price increases, and futures contracts for coking coal and coke hitting their daily limits [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a growth stabilization plan for ten key industries, which is expected to boost market confidence in coking coal [1] Group 2 - Market analysts report that supply recovery from Shanxi coal mines is lagging behind expectations, while downstream demand remains strong, leading to a tight supply-demand balance in the coking coal market [2] - Over the past three years, domestic thermal coal prices have dropped significantly, with a cumulative decline of over 45%, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the industry [2] - The large-scale investment in the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to stimulate demand for upstream materials and equipment, enhancing the market's expectations for future investments [3] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to replicate the logic of the 2016 supply-side reform, potentially leading to a significant rebound in coal prices and coal indices [2] - The expectation of continued strong coal prices is supported by the upcoming peak coal consumption season and the ongoing "anti-involution" sentiment [3] - Companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, are recommended for investment due to their favorable outlook in the coal sector [3]