日美贸易协定落地能否挽救石破茂政权？日本政坛陷“罗生门时刻”

Group 1: Political Context - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has denied media reports about his resignation, stating that they are "completely unfounded" [1] - Following a historic defeat in the House of Councillors election, Ishiba indicated plans to announce his resignation intentions by the end of August [1][6] - The ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) failed to secure a majority in both houses of the National Diet for the first time since its establishment in 1955 [6][7] Group 2: US-Japan Trade Agreement - A trade agreement has been reached where the US will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, which is lower than the previously proposed 25% [4][6] - Japan will increase its investment in the US by $550 billion, with a focus on sectors such as semiconductors, steel, shipbuilding, energy, and automobiles [4][5] - The agreement includes provisions for increasing the import of US rice under Japan's current minimum access system, without compromising Japanese agriculture [4] Group 3: Economic Implications - Experts suggest that while the 15% tariff is lower than the initial proposal, it still poses significant challenges for Japanese companies, particularly in the automotive sector, which accounts for nearly 25% of Japan's exports [5][6] - The potential for a stronger yen and weaker dollar could exacerbate the impact of the tariff, making it difficult for Japanese firms to maintain profitability in the US market [5][6] - The overall economic outlook for Japan may be negatively affected, with predictions that even a 15% tariff could hinder GDP growth [6][7]