Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Tibet Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to have a total installed capacity of 60GW, which is 2.7 times that of the Three Gorges Dam, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion RMB and a construction period of 10 to 20 years [1] - The project is anticipated to require approximately 4.3 million tons of cement, averaging about 430,000 tons per year, which will increase cement demand in Tibet by about 33% [1] - Tibet Tianlu (600326.SH) holds a 33% market share in the local cement market, while Huaxin Cement (06655, 600801.SH), China National Building Material (03323), and Conch Cement (00914, 600585.SH) have market shares of 25%, 19%, and 7% respectively [1] Group 2 - The project is estimated to have an average annual steel demand of about 600,000 tons, with ordinary steel accounting for 60% and special steel for 40% [2] - The expected profit for Tibet Tianlu is approximately 160 million RMB annually, compared to a projected loss of 104 million RMB in 2024, while Huaxin Cement, China National Building Material, and Conch Cement are expected to see net profit increases of about 5%, 2%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Based on valuation advantages, the company maintains a "buy" rating for China National Building Material, while Conch Cement and China Resources Cement Technology (01313) are rated "neutral," and the overall rating for steel stocks remains "neutral" [2]
瑞银：水泥股偏好中国建材(03323) 维持钢铁股“中性”评级