八马茶业转战港交所：加盟边际效应减弱、高端品牌形象不稳 递表前低价转让股权

Core Viewpoint - Baima Tea Industry Co., Ltd. is attempting to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after several unsuccessful attempts in the A-share market, facing challenges in maintaining growth and profitability amid a high-cost marketing strategy [1][2]. Company Overview - Baima Tea has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 17, seeking a main board listing, with Huatai International, Agricultural Bank of China International, and Tianfeng International as joint sponsors [1]. - The company has a history of failed listings, including attempts in 2013, 2015, 2021, and 2022, with various regulatory hurdles and market conditions impacting its progress [1]. Business Model and Expansion - Baima Tea operates a franchise model, selling directly to consumers through franchise stores rather than through distributors, with 3,370 stores as of 2023, the highest among Chinese tea companies [3]. - The number of stores has been growing at an average rate of around 25% from 2019 to 2021, with a significant increase in franchise stores, which accounted for 92.2% of total stores by 2024 [3][5]. Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, total revenue grew from 1.023 billion yuan to 2.122 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20%, while net profit increased from 90.88 million yuan to 206 million yuan, with a CAGR of about 19.8% [5]. - In the first nine months of 2024, total revenue and net profit were 1.647 billion yuan and 208 million yuan, respectively, showing minimal growth compared to the same period in 2023 [5][6]. Consumer Behavior and Market Challenges - The average purchase frequency for Baima Tea's customers is low, with 80% of members buying only 1-2 times a year, limiting sales growth potential [6]. - The company's franchise model has shown diminishing returns, with average monthly sales per franchise store dropping to a historical low of 28,200 yuan in 2024 [6]. Product Strategy and Market Position - Baima Tea focuses on high-end tea products, with premium items priced significantly higher than average market rates, contributing to over 81% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024 [8][10]. - The company holds a 1.7% market share in the high-end tea market, which is projected to reach 140.4 billion yuan by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 6% [10]. Supply Chain and Quality Control - A significant portion of Baima Tea's products is sourced from third-party manufacturers, raising concerns about product quality and consistency [11]. - The company has faced consumer complaints regarding product quality, with a low response and resolution rate for complaints [11]. Investment and Valuation - Baima Tea has attracted external investors, with a valuation increase from 7.28 billion yuan in 2012 to approximately 2.299 billion yuan before the current listing attempt, indicating a modest growth of only 2 billion yuan over four years [15][16]. - The company’s valuation is significantly lower compared to competitors, with concerns about potential undervaluation in the current market environment [16].