2025年6月CPI、PPI数据点评——基数效应叠加外贸预期不稳，PPI降幅扩张

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while it decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a persistent low growth due to insufficient consumer demand [2][9] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, up 0.1 percentage points from May, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer demand [2][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [6][9] - The PPI for the first half of 2025 decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period in 2024, influenced by high base effects and external pressures [6][7] - The decline in industrial product prices is attributed to insufficient demand, exacerbated by external environmental pressures and domestic economic structural adjustments [6][7][9] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Prices - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in June, with a notable decline in pork prices due to high base effects from the previous year, while other food prices showed an upward trend [3][4] - Non-food prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery but still remaining in a low growth range, primarily due to oversupply in the market [4][5] - Service prices saw the largest year-on-year increase of 8.1%, reflecting a diverse performance across different non-food categories [5][9]