调查显示消费意愿下降，下半年如何发挥消费对经济拉动作用？

Group 1 - The core consumer willingness index for Q2 2025 is 120.2, which is a decrease of 1.2 points from the previous quarter and a decline of 7.1 points compared to the same period last year [5][6] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth in the first half of the year reached 52%, up from 49.9% in the first three quarters of last year [3][12] - The report indicates a significant drop in consumer expectation willingness, which is attributed to the complex domestic and international economic situation, leading to increased risk aversion and a higher savings willingness among consumers [5][6] Group 2 - The phenomenon of rising savings willingness among consumers is noteworthy, with savings being the primary use of disposable income, followed by education for children, travel, mortgage repayment, and medical expenses [6][7] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has driven sales of 2.9 trillion yuan, benefiting approximately 400 million consumers, and has contributed to the growth of the retail sector [9][10] - Experts express concerns about the diminishing effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy in the second half of the year, suggesting the need for further adjustments to consumption promotion policies [10][12] Group 3 - The restaurant industry has shown a decline in revenue growth, with June's year-on-year growth rate dropping to 0.9%, indicating potential challenges for the sector [13] - Recommendations for the restaurant industry include stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations to boost consumer confidence, as well as tax relief for small and medium-sized enterprises [13]