“反内卷”激活行业信心，光伏供需格局有哪些变化？

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" actions have shown initial results, but the reduction and upgrading of the industrial chain require policy guidance and continuous cooperation from market entities to be truly achieved [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 212.21 GW, a year-on-year increase of 107.07%, but there was a significant drop in June to 14.36 GW after a record high in May [1] - The intensified policy guidance has instilled confidence in the market for healthy development, as evidenced by the recent surge in polysilicon prices, which hit a limit increase of 12% [1][6] Group 2 - Over 20 photovoltaic companies reported that the most challenging period has not yet passed, with losses remaining common; Tongwei Co. expects a net loss of approximately 4.9 to 5.2 billion yuan [2] - The industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to low product prices and declining gross margins across the main chain segments [2][3] - Some companies have managed to reduce losses or turn profitable through various strategies, with LONGi Green Energy expecting a reduced loss of 2.4 to 2.8 billion yuan due to improved internal management [3][4] Group 3 - Aiko Solar has reported a net profit of 20 to 130 million yuan in the second quarter, becoming the first major company to turn a profit during this industry adjustment [4] - Many cross-industry companies are exiting the photovoltaic sector, with significant withdrawals occurring in the first half of the year [4][5] - The price of polysilicon has been rising, with the average transaction price for n-type polysilicon reaching 46,800 yuan per ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.23% [6] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a transition phase with a significant shift from P-type to N-type silicon wafers, leading to a reduction in overall capacity [7] - The penetration rate of N-type silicon wafers has exceeded 90%, marking the end of P-type wafers as mainstream technology [7] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the clearing of excess capacity in the photovoltaic industry, with a critical adjustment period anticipated in the second half of the year [7] Group 5 - Emerging markets are projected to become the main source of growth for renewable energy equipment and systems, despite current demand slowdowns due to grid capacity issues [8] - Chinese companies possess significant cost and supply chain advantages in photovoltaic components, but must enhance their soft power in international markets to remain competitive [8]