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国网能源院报告解析新能源发展新阶段、新特征、新挑战

Core Insights - The report from State Grid Energy Research Institute indicates that by 2024, China's renewable energy generation will transition from being an incremental contributor to a stock-based contributor, with renewable energy becoming the main source of electricity generation growth [1][2] - By the end of 2024, China's cumulative renewable energy installed capacity is expected to reach 1.41 billion kilowatts, accounting for 42% of the total installed capacity, surpassing coal power as the largest energy source [1][2] - The report forecasts that by 2025, the new installed capacity of renewable energy in China will reach between 430 million to 500 million kilowatts, with a potential installed capacity of over 3 billion kilowatts by 2030 [1][3] Installed Capacity and Generation - As of 2024, the installed capacity of wind power is projected to be 520 million kilowatts, while solar power is expected to reach 890 million kilowatts [1] - In terms of generation, renewable energy is expected to contribute 1.84 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25%, accounting for 18.5% of total electricity generation, up nearly 3 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The utilization rate of renewable energy is expected to remain above 95% in 2024, supported by improvements in grid integration and power system balancing capabilities [2] Cost Trends and Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decrease in the cost of renewable energy generation, with onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar power costs dropping by approximately 26%, 23%, and 23% respectively in 2024 [2] - The transition to a market-oriented pricing mechanism for renewable energy is anticipated to begin in 2025, which will likely lead to a decrease in grid connection prices due to increased competition [3] Future Development and Recommendations - The renewable energy sector is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with an average annual increase of 30 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - Experts recommend enhancing technological innovation, developing long-term electricity price forecasting models, and optimizing investment decisions to sustain high-quality development in the renewable energy sector [4]