“涨”声背后，“反内卷”效应在扩大

Group 1: Steel Price Trends - Steel prices have rebounded during the traditional off-season, with 18mm rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil prices increasing by 7.8%, 8.5%, and 6.9% respectively compared to their yearly lows [2] - The futures market showed even more significant increases, with rebar futures rising 12.4% and hot-rolled coil futures up 13.6% from their respective yearly lows [2] - Factors contributing to the price increase include asset cycles, policy expectations, rising costs, and market sentiment [4][5] Group 2: Industry Performance and Outlook - Steel companies have shown improved performance in the first half of the year, with several companies forecasting significant profit increases [7] - The steel industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, and a positive economic outlook, along with controlled crude steel production, is expected to support steel prices in the second half of the year [8] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to have a long-term positive impact on the industry, promoting structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [5][10] Group 3: Raw Material Costs - Rising raw material prices, particularly coal, have contributed to increased production costs for steel manufacturers, thereby supporting higher steel prices [6] - The recent rebound in commodity prices is seen as a reaction to previous significant declines, creating a demand for recovery [5] Group 4: Glass Market Dynamics - The glass market has also experienced price increases, with the main contract price rising by 9.08% on July 22, leading to a positive trading atmosphere [9][10] - Factors driving the glass price increase include previous market overselling, policy guidance on supply-side "anti-involution," and positive feedback between futures and spot markets [10] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices have shown a significant rebound, with a 17.8% increase since June 23, driven by supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes in the lithium mining sector [13][14] - The market anticipates a narrowing supply-demand gap by 2025, with potential for a balanced market by 2026 [13][15]