Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure due to rising long-term interest rates, driven by increased risk appetite, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, and heightened commodity inflation sentiment [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points, with the commodity market also rising, while the bond market faced pressure with yields increasing [1] - The 10-year government bond yield approached 1.72%, and the 30-year yield exceeded 1.93%, breaking the recent narrow fluctuation pattern [1] - Despite a recovery in the afternoon, the overall trend of "strong stocks and weak bonds" continues, with the 10-year yield falling back below 1.7% [1][3] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts note that the current bond market adjustment reflects two main characteristics: rising risk appetite and historically low credit spreads, making the bond market structurally fragile [2] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with liquidity staying reasonably ample, as evidenced by the DR007 operating around 1.5% [2] - There is a shift in asset preferences, with bonds under pressure due to insufficient returns and unfavorable market conditions, while commodities and stocks attract more capital [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue facing downward pressure in the short term, with the key factors being the stock market's performance and the sustainability of loose liquidity [3] - Structural opportunities may arise, particularly in the short to medium-term credit bonds supported by ample liquidity, which may exhibit a "more gains than losses" trend [3] - If the stock market maintains a strong oscillating pattern, long-term bonds may face ongoing pressure and repricing risks [3]
风险偏好回升 债市被动调整
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-07-23 18:08