人民币汇率“稳中偏强”的背后

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with internal dynamics being fundamental, leading to a "stable yet strong" trend in the RMB exchange rate [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - The RMB has appreciated nearly 2% against the USD since the beginning of the year, maintaining stability despite significant fluctuations in the USD index, which has dropped over 10% [1]. - The RMB/USD exchange rate has shown a pattern of "low volatility and resilience," with fluctuations remaining significantly lower than those of the Euro, Yen, and most emerging market currencies [2]. Group 2: Internal Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - Key internal factors contributing to the RMB's stability include a robust domestic economic foundation, effective policy measures, and flexible central bank operations [2]. - The implementation of growth-stabilizing policies and various export strategies have provided intrinsic support for the RMB exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The convergence of onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates, along with the central parity rate, indicates a significant reduction in price differentials, contributing to lower volatility [3]. - Analysts believe that the internal momentum supporting the RMB's stability is continuously accumulating, with expectations of ongoing positive policy measures in the second half of the year [3].