国际能源署发布最新报告显示—— 今年石油需求增速将创新低

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil demand growth will be approximately 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2025, marking the lowest increase since 2009 [1] - In the first quarter of this year, global oil demand growth reached an average of 1.1 million bpd, but significantly slowed to an average of 550,000 bpd in the second quarter, particularly in emerging markets [1] - The report anticipates that global oil demand will reach 104.4 million bpd by 2026, with a growth of 720,000 bpd [1] Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply averaged 105.6 million bpd in June, a substantial increase of 950,000 bpd month-on-month and 2.9 million bpd year-on-year, with OPEC+ contributing 1.9 million bpd [1] - With OPEC+ raising production targets for August, global average crude oil supply is expected to increase by 2.1 million bpd this year, reaching 105.1 million bpd, and potentially increasing by another 1.3 million bpd by 2026 [1] - Non-OPEC+ countries are projected to increase oil production by an average of 1.4 million bpd and 940,000 bpd in the next two years [1] Refining and Processing - In June, global refinery crude processing increased by 1.7 million bpd, with expectations of a further increase of 2 million bpd in July and August due to seasonal demand [2] - Global crude processing is projected to reach a peak of 85.4 million bpd, with annual averages of 83.3 million bpd and 83.8 million bpd expected in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - Despite a narrowing of refining margins in June due to rising crude prices, margins have rebounded to their highest levels of the year in early July [2] Inventory Trends - Global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels in May, with significant increases in crude, LNG, and refined product inventories [2] - Preliminary data for June indicates further increases in global oil inventories, primarily driven by offshore tanker storage and rising inventories in non-OECD countries [2] Price Movements - The North Sea crude benchmark price rose by $7 per barrel in June, averaging $71.35 per barrel, with prices fluctuating between $65 and $80 per barrel [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, have influenced price spikes, although the market has shown signs of oversupply despite OPEC+ decisions to increase production [3] OPEC+ Strategy - The IEA expects OPEC+ to complete its supply recovery plan of 2.2 million bpd a year ahead of schedule, which may exacerbate oversupply in the international oil market [4] - The increase in OPEC+ production is seen as necessary to meet short-term seasonal demand but could lead to greater price volatility risks in the latter half of 2025 [4] - Structural changes in the international oil market are anticipated, with supply growth expected to significantly outpace demand growth in the coming years [4]