产能高企叠加终端需求不足 白羽肉鸡价格持续下跌行业加速洗牌

Core Viewpoint - The white feather broiler industry is experiencing a significant price decline due to high production capacity and insufficient terminal demand, leading to an accelerated industry reshuffle [1]. Group 1: Price Decline and Market Conditions - The average price of broilers in major production areas fell below 3 yuan/kg twice this year, with chick prices dropping by half within a month [1]. - As of July 4, the average price of broilers was 6.42 yuan/kg, down 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous day, while chick prices fell to 0.91 yuan/chick, a daily drop of 0.18 yuan/chick [2]. - The price of chicks has decreased by more than 50% in just one month, with some regions experiencing order cancellations and pressure on hatcheries to reduce prices [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The root cause of the price drop is the imbalance between supply and demand, with production capacity reaching historical highs after years of expansion [3]. - The average daily output of chicks is approximately 29.07 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.75%, while the demand growth is lagging [3]. - In 2024, the slaughter volume of white feather broilers is projected to reach 8.646 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.57%, with a further increase in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Sales Challenges - High inventory levels and poor market demand have led to difficulties in product sales, with significant price declines observed across various chicken products [4]. - The average purchase price of white feather broilers was 3.31 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week, reflecting a 2.93% week-on-week decline [4]. - The combination of high inventory and reduced demand has resulted in some companies reducing production and slaughtering volumes [4]. Group 4: Industry Response and Future Outlook - Some leading meat chicken companies are seeking solutions through innovation and transformation, such as enhancing product quality and optimizing feed formulas to reduce costs [6]. - There are signs of price stabilization after a series of declines, with some companies reporting increased hatchling output and improved sales speed [6]. - Expectations for a slight recovery in chick market demand are anticipated as hatcheries may reduce output in late July, potentially aligning with the next sales peak [6].