多因素共振 钢价出现反弹

Group 1 - Steel prices have rebounded during the traditional consumption off-season, with domestic prices for 18mm rebar, 4.75mm hot-rolled coil, and 1mm cold-rolled coil increasing by 7.8%, 8.5%, and 6.9% respectively from their yearly lows [1] - The futures market showed even more significant increases, with rebar futures closing at 3274 yuan/ton, up 12.4% from the year's lowest price of 2912 yuan/ton [1] - Multiple steel companies have adjusted their ex-factory prices, with 17 companies raising prices by 20 to 100 yuan/ton in the past week [3] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the price rebound include asset cycles, policy expectations, rising costs, and market sentiment [3][4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity and enhance the industry's green development, which is positively influencing market expectations [4] - The continuous rise in raw material prices, particularly coal, has also provided strong support for steel prices [4] Group 3 - Steel companies have shown significant improvement in profitability, with 21 listed steel companies reporting positive earnings forecasts for the first half of the year [5] - Companies like Liugang Co. expect a 530% increase in net profit due to enhanced operational efficiency and strategic transformations [6] - The outlook for steel demand and prices in the second half of the year remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for price increases during the traditional peak consumption months of September and October [6]