方正富邦基金：为什么说保险比银行更保险？

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has seen a valuation recovery due to favorable funding, policy, and sentiment changes, with the China Securities Banking Index rising by 13.31% as of July 22, 2023, and the A-share market capitalization of banks exceeding 10 trillion yuan, marking a historical high. However, the increasing crowding in the banking sector has led to a decline in investment cost-effectiveness, while the insurance index is gaining attention due to its low valuation and strong profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Valuation Comparison - The banking sector's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 7.32, at the 94.91% historical percentile, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 0.73, at the 46.18% historical percentile, indicating that the overall valuation of the banking index is not low historically [1]. - In contrast, the insurance theme index has a P/E ratio of 7.92, at the 30.33% historical percentile, and a P/B ratio of 0.86, also at the 30.33% historical percentile, suggesting that insurance valuations are cheaper than 69% of the time over the past decade [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Improvement - The insurance sector benefits from a dual resonance of assets and liabilities, with premium income projected to grow from 1.7 trillion yuan in 2013 to 5.7 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 10.61%, outpacing GDP growth [5][6]. - The return on equity (ROE) for the insurance industry is expected to be 17.74% in 2024, ranking third in the industry, indicating high-quality profit growth. As of May, the insurance sector achieved a premium income of 30,602 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.77% [6]. - Regulatory requirements for large state-owned insurance companies to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares are expected to enhance the asset and liability sides of insurance companies, contributing to a significant recovery in fundamentals [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Support - Recent regulatory policies in the insurance industry have been positive, aimed at mitigating interest rate risk and enhancing long-term capital investment in the market. The Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to encourage stable long-term investments by insurance funds [8]. - The introduction of a three-year performance evaluation for insurance companies is expected to resolve mismatches between the nature of insurance funds and performance assessments, thereby releasing the potential for increased capital inflow into the market [8].