新西兰联储首席经济学家Conway：关税料将意味着出口需求更加疲软。CPI数据与新西兰联储的预期相符。预计通胀在2026年年初来到2%左右。委员会预计2025年年中通胀率在3%左右。如果物价压力缓解，有降息空间。准备好在必要时调整现金利率。关税对新西兰经济是一个负面冲击。美国关税将压低新西兰出口价格。

Group 1 - The chief economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Conway, indicates that tariffs are expected to lead to weaker export demand [1] - CPI data aligns with the expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [1] - Inflation is projected to reach around 2% by early 2026, with an expected inflation rate of approximately 3% by mid-2025 [1] Group 2 - There is potential for interest rate cuts if price pressures ease, with readiness to adjust the cash rate as necessary [2] - Tariffs are viewed as a negative shock to the New Zealand economy [2] - U.S. tariffs are expected to lower export prices from New Zealand [2]