PVC：宏观及政策面驱动反复波动 基本面暂无改善

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, with PVC futures showing an upward trend. However, traders are primarily engaging in fixed-price transactions, leading to a weakening of the basis for actual transactions [1] - The mainstream cash price for PVC in East China is between 5000-5120 RMB/ton, while in South China it ranges from 5000-5110 RMB/ton. Prices in Hebei are between 4730-4870 RMB/ton, and in Shandong, they range from 4880-4960 RMB/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 74.97%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The operating rate for calcium carbide-based PVC is 77.52%, an increase of 0.59 percentage points, while the ethylene-based PVC rate is 68.31%, down by 1.92 percentage points [2] - As of July 17, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 6.10 days, a decrease of 1.29%. This reduction is attributed to high pre-sales and accelerated deliveries to both domestic and international markets [2] PVC Market Outlook - The market sentiment has significantly declined, with prices showing little fluctuation. The current supply-demand dynamics indicate a seasonal decrease in demand, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The demand for procurement remains low, and export orders are generally weak, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory [3] - The macroeconomic environment has improved, causing a collective rebound in commodities. However, the short-term trading logic is more influenced by macro sentiment rather than the fundamentals of the PVC market, suggesting a cautious approach for the time being [3]