美欧贸易谈判曙光乍现，降息预期升温，美股借势上涨

Group 1 - The U.S. financial market reacted positively to changes in trade and monetary policy expectations, with a significant trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan announced, and a potential trade deal with the EU nearing completion [1][3] - The U.S. plans to impose a 15% tariff on European imports, similar to the agreement with Japan, while the EU may agree to eliminate tariffs on certain products, with the possibility of reducing the current 27.5% auto tariff to 15% [1][3] - Despite the optimistic outlook for trade agreements, the EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan of up to €93 billion, with a maximum rate of 30%, in case negotiations fail [1] Group 2 - The stock market responded swiftly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 400 points following the news, indicating increased investor confidence in the potential for a U.S.-EU trade agreement before the August 1 deadline [3] - Market analysts believe that the clarity in trade policy is beneficial for companies and could drive further stock market gains [3] - Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted significantly, with traders increasing bets on a substantial rate cut in 2026, reflecting a change in sentiment regarding future monetary easing [3][4] Group 3 - The pressure from President Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has led to speculation about a potential change in leadership that may favor more accommodative monetary policies [4] - Potential successors to Powell, such as Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, have publicly supported rate cuts, contributing to market expectations of a 58% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [4] - Despite the positive developments in trade and monetary policy, concerns remain about declining corporate earnings expectations, which could lead to increased market volatility and correction risks [4]