前五月白酒回流加速 白酒国际化成色究竟如何？

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a paradoxical trend where a significant amount of liquor is being imported back into the domestic market, creating a "export to domestic sales" cycle, highlighting deep challenges in the internationalization process of Chinese liquor [1] Group 1: Export and Import Data - In the first five months of 2025, China's liquor exports reached $400 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, with an export volume of 6.84 million liters, up 5.7% [2] - During the same period, imports of spirits from "Chinese origin" surged to $168 million, a staggering increase of 47.3%, surpassing imports from traditional liquor-exporting countries like the UK [2] - The average import price of these returned liquors was $176.3 per liter, nearly three times the average export price of $58.8 per liter [2] Group 2: Profitability and Industry Challenges - Despite the taxes associated with both exporting and importing, the return of liquor remains profitable due to policy differences and operational flexibility in the import-export process [3] - Exporters benefit from nearly 30% tax rebates, allowing them to offer discounts to distributors, making it feasible to profit even after incurring around 40% in import taxes [3] - Many exports do not reach overseas end markets; instead, they are often halted in bonded zones, leading to a phenomenon termed "exports that never leave the country" [3] Group 3: Internationalization Issues - The phenomenon of liquor return indicates a "quantity increase without quality improvement" in the internationalization of Chinese liquor, with 35% of export value concentrated in Hong Kong and Macau [4] - The export landscape is heavily dominated by a few major players, with Moutai accounting for over 96% of Guizhou's liquor exports, indicating a lack of internationalization among smaller enterprises [4] - The ongoing numerical competition between exports and returns suggests a need for the industry to redefine success in internationalization, focusing on genuine consumer acceptance rather than just export volume growth [4]