伊朗地缘政治冲突 甲醇期货行情呈现震荡上行走势

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with methanol futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 2484.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.10% increase [1] - The geopolitical conflict in Iran and coal policy have boosted sentiment in the coal chemical sector, leading to a significant rise in methanol prices, despite weak demand from traditional downstream sectors [1] - Inventory levels for domestic enterprises are low, with most manufacturers facing no inventory pressure, suggesting a potential for price increases in the near term [1] Group 2 - The upstream coal profit remains high, while the coastal MTO profit has slightly declined, indicating a disparity in profitability across the supply chain [2] - The impact of anti-involution policies on methanol production is expected to be limited, as older production facilities constitute a small portion of the total, making significant supply reductions unlikely [2] - The expectation of continued inventory accumulation at ports is likely to suppress spot prices in East China, leading to a bearish outlook on the methanol market fundamentals [2]