终端消费处于淡季 生猪主力合约区间宽幅震荡

Core Viewpoint - The pig futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 14,320.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.55% [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Conditions - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes strict implementation of capacity control measures, including the rational elimination of breeding sows and reduction of their inventory [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission reports that the national pig market price is 14.96 yuan/kg, down 0.53% from the previous period [2] - As of July 22, the operating rate of key slaughter enterprises is 26.48%, an increase of 0.37% week-on-week, while the frozen meat warehouse capacity utilization is 17.44%, a decrease of 0.02% [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures notes that demand is weak, with terminal consumption remaining sluggish and downstream resistance to high pig prices. The supply pressure is evident as the breeding sector accelerates sales [3] - Guoyuan Futures indicates that the pig industry is in a capacity release phase while terminal consumption is in a low season. However, there is some expectation of demand recovery, providing support for short-term prices [3] - Both institutions suggest that while short-term market sentiment is bullish due to seasonal consumption expectations and capacity control policies, medium-term supply pressures remain significant due to high inventory levels [3]