Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gold market is experiencing a downturn, with prices expected to consolidate below $3,400 in the short term, influenced by upcoming significant U.S. economic data releases [1][2] - On July 24, gold prices fell sharply, closing down $44.44 or 1.3% at $3,387.22 per ounce, primarily due to reports of the U.S. and EU nearing a tariff agreement, which diminished safe-haven demand [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3.5 basis points to 4.384%, pushing the real yield to 1.994%, further suppressing gold prices [2] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. initial jobless claims data, expected to be 227,000, and the durable goods orders month-on-month change, projected to drop from 16.4% in May to -10.8% [2] - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, with expectations for the July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value at 52.6 and the services PMI at 53.0 [2] - Analysts suggest that if either PMI index falls below 50.0, indicating a contraction in economic activity, the U.S. dollar may weaken, potentially benefiting gold prices [2][3] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that after reaching a five-week high of $3,438, gold prices reversed and fell to around $3,380, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating a weakening buying momentum [6] - If gold breaks above $3,400, the next resistance level is at the June 16 high of $3,452, with a further target towards the historical high of $3,500; conversely, if it remains below $3,400, it may test lower levels at $3,350 and subsequently the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $3,343 and $3,338 respectively [6]
美国重量级数据驾到 恐点燃新一轮黄金行情
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-24 07:09