PACIFIC SECURITIES(SH:601099) 智通财经网·2025-07-24 07:31Group 1 - The report from Pacific Securities indicates that bauxite supply is abundant, China's electrolytic aluminum production is controlled, and downstream demand is steadily increasing, leading to a potential high price for electrolytic aluminum [1] - Bauxite is the most abundant metal element on Earth, with Guinea holding the largest reserves of approximately 7.4 billion tons, accounting for 25.52% of the global total. In 2024, global bauxite production is expected to reach 450 million tons, with Guinea contributing about 130 million tons, or 28.89% [1] - China's bauxite resource reserves account for only 2.34% of the global total, but due to strong downstream demand, its bauxite production is 93 million tons, representing 20.67% of the global output [1] Group 2 - In 2024, global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to be 72 million tons, with China maintaining its position as the largest producer at 43 million tons, which is 60% of the total [2] - The cost of electrolytic aluminum is primarily driven by electricity, alumina, and prebaked anodes, and is manageable. The demand for aluminum is being bolstered by the growth in the renewable energy sector, compensating for the decline in the real estate sector [2] Group 3 - Over the past decade, China's electrolytic aluminum industry has undergone a significant shift, with production moving from east to west and north to south. Yunnan province, with its abundant hydropower resources, has become a key production base with a capacity of 5.85 million tons by the end of 2024 [3] - Yunnan province is well-connected to regions such as Sichuan, Chongqing, and South China, and has links to Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Indian Ocean region, where industrialization is accelerating and demand for aluminum is strong [3] - The introduction of carbon taxes by the EU enhances the competitiveness of green aluminum, positioning it favorably in the market [3]