Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-07-24 10:35Group 1: Market Trends - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices have been rising, with the main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closing at 76,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,300 yuan/ton or 7.21% in a single day, reaching a new high [1] - Since hitting a low on June 23, the contract has seen a cumulative increase of over 20%, with the spot market also rising; as of July 24, the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price was 70,150 yuan/ton, up 17% from June 23 [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau issued a notice on July 14, requiring eight local lithium mining companies to prepare resource verification reports by September 30 due to issues related to "bypassing approval authority and overstepping procedures," indicating increased regulatory scrutiny on lithium resource development [1] - On July 17, Cangge Mining announced that its subsidiary, Geermu Cangge Lithium Industry, was ordered to suspend operations and rectify violations related to unauthorized lithium resource extraction [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - Jiangte Electric announced on July 21 that its subsidiary Yichun Yinli would start maintenance on all lithium salt production lines on July 25, expected to last about 26 days, further heightening market expectations of a contraction in lithium carbonate supply [2] - The rebound in lithium carbonate prices is attributed not only to production cuts but also to domestic policies aimed at preventing "involution" in the new energy industry, promoting healthy competition and reducing price wars [2] Group 4: Company Performance - Leading companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium saw their stocks hit the daily limit up; Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of the year, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - Ganfeng Lithium anticipates a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a reduction from a loss of 760 million yuan in the previous year [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - There are differing opinions on the sustainability of price increases; while demand remains primarily driven by necessity, many companies are reluctant to accept high lithium prices, leading to a sluggish spot market [3] - Despite rising lithium salt prices pushing up costs, new capacities from South American salt lakes and African mines are expected to be released in the second half of the year, maintaining a long-term oversupply scenario [3] - Industry insiders predict that the supply-demand gap will narrow by 2025, achieving a balance by 2026, followed by a state of tight balance and eventual shortages [3]