大摩最新研判：2025 年二季度中国股市成绩单出炉，这些板块最亮眼！

Overall Performance - The second quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery in the Chinese stock market, with A-shares stabilizing and MSCI China improving [2][3] - As of July 21, 2025, 1,528 A-share companies (30% of total, 25% of total market capitalization) issued earnings forecasts, with a net negative warning rate of -4.8%, an improvement from -18.8% in the previous quarter [2] - The MSCI China index, covering overseas-listed Chinese core assets, reported a net positive warning rate of +6.8%, the highest in four quarters, indicating a rebound in confidence from overseas investors [3] Sector Performance - Strong sectors include financial services, materials, and technology hardware, while consumer services, real estate, and software lag behind [5][6] - Financial services benefit from stable growth policies, materials see gains from commodity price recovery, and technology hardware thrives on innovation [5] - Real estate continues to face pressure due to inventory reduction and financing challenges, while consumer services are affected by slow recovery in domestic demand [5][6] Market Capitalization - Large-cap stocks show stability with a net negative warning rate of -1.4%, indicating strong risk resistance and high earnings certainty [7] - Small-cap stocks have significantly improved, with a net negative warning rate narrowing from -31.1% to -7.4%, reflecting recovery supported by policy and industry revival [7] - Mid-cap stocks perform moderately with a net negative warning rate of -12.7%, showing improvement but still lagging behind large-cap stocks [8] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Sectors with upward adjustments include technology hardware, consumer staples, and pharmaceuticals, driven by increased orders and stable demand [9] - Sectors facing downward adjustments include semiconductors, utilities, consumer services, and real estate, reflecting cautious market sentiment [9] Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley identifies nine stocks to watch, primarily from materials, pharmaceuticals, and technology hardware sectors, based on positive earnings forecasts and analyst ratings [10][11] - Caution is advised for six stocks concentrated in real estate and certain consumer services, reflecting high earnings uncertainty [10][11] Future Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, such as finance and infrastructure-related materials, as well as resilient consumer services and technology growth areas [12][13] - The overall recovery remains uneven, and investors are encouraged to prioritize quality stocks with stable earnings and reasonable valuations [13]