史上罕见参访！特朗普“登门”施压美联储，但专家无情打脸：“炒掉”鲍威尔也难降债务

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, including a potential visit and threats to dismiss Chairman Powell, symbolizes a significant political intervention in the Fed's independence, primarily aimed at reducing government debt interest expenses [1][2][4]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump's upcoming visit to the Federal Reserve marks the first time in nearly two decades that a sitting president has done so, indicating a notable shift in the traditional respect for the Fed's independence [2]. - Trump has consistently criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming that high borrowing costs are negatively impacting the real estate market [2][3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has expressed confusion over the Fed's reluctance to cut rates, questioning the impact of tariffs on the Fed's decision-making [2][4]. Group 2: Potential Dismissal of Powell - Trump has considered the possibility of dismissing Powell but later retracted this idea, stating that such an action is unlikely unless Powell engages in fraudulent behavior [3]. - Discussions about Powell's potential successors are ongoing, with names like Waller and Hassett being mentioned, although no immediate action is planned [3]. Group 3: Calls for Reform - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has called for a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve, questioning its focus on tariffs in the absence of clear inflation pressures [4]. - Any systemic reform of the Fed would require Congressional approval, which could be a lengthy process, highlighting the challenges of balancing political pressure with the Fed's independence [4]. Group 4: Economic Implications of Interest Rates - Trump argues that lowering the current policy interest rate (4.25% - 4.50%) by 3 percentage points could save the government $1 trillion annually in interest expenses [7]. - Interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time this fiscal year, with significant increases in debt service costs anticipated [5][7]. - The rising interest expenses are attributed to the growing federal debt and the recent downgrade of the U.S. debt rating by Moody's [5]. Group 5: Risks of Political Intervention - Experts warn that Trump's pressure on the Fed could lead to increased long-term interest rates, counteracting any short-term benefits from rate cuts [8][11]. - The potential dismissal of Powell may not significantly impact debt interest costs, as any short-term rate reductions could be offset by rising long-term rates due to inflation concerns [11][13]. - Political pressure on the Fed could result in investors demanding higher interest rates, complicating the Fed's ability to respond to economic conditions without appearing politically influenced [15].