Magnolia Oil to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 30, with earnings estimated at 40 cents per share and revenues at $310.2 million [1]. Group 1: Recent Performance - In the last reported quarter, MGY achieved a net profit of 55 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2 cents, driven by increased production volumes from the Giddings asset [2]. - Total revenues for the last quarter were $350.3 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $7 million, with MGY beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging a surprise of 7.1% [2]. Group 2: Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings has increased by 2.6% in the past week, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 28.6% [3]. - Revenue estimates for the same quarter show a decline of 7.9% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 3: Production and Revenue Expectations - Total production is projected to reach 8.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) in the second quarter, reflecting a 7.3% increase from 8.2 MMboe in the same quarter last year [5]. - Oil production is expected to rise by 11.4% year-over-year to 3.9 thousand barrels (MBbls), while natural gas liquids (NGL) production is forecasted to increase by 8.7% to 2.5 MBbls [5]. - Revenue from NGL is anticipated to grow by 8.4% year-over-year to $46.4 million, and revenues from natural gas are expected to more than double to $42.5 million compared to $18.6 million last year [6]. Group 4: Cost Management - General and administrative expenses are projected to decrease by 20.2% to $18.2 million in the second quarter, down from $22.8 million in the previous year, which may positively impact the bottom line [7]. Group 5: Earnings Prediction - The model predicts an earnings beat for MGY, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.50% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [8][10]. - The expected earnings of 40 cents per share represent a 28.6% decline from the prior-year quarter, while production is projected to rise by 7.3% [9].