【环球财经】欧洲央行暂停降息 贸易不确定性令其回避前瞻指引

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain interest rates unchanged after seven consecutive rate cuts, awaiting clearer signals regarding EU-US trade relations [1][2] - The deposit facility rate remains at 2%, while the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate are held steady at 2.15% and 2.40% respectively [2] - The ECB emphasized a "data-driven, meeting-by-meeting" approach, avoiding preset interest rate paths, with decisions based on the latest data [2] Group 2 - Eurozone inflation has eased to the target level of 2%, prompting the ECB to adopt a wait-and-see stance due to the potential impacts of a US-EU trade agreement [2] - The Eurozone's business activity accelerated in July, with the composite PMI rising to an 11-month high of 51.0, driven by service sector growth and stabilization in manufacturing [3] - The strong Euro, which has appreciated over 13% against the US dollar this year, has raised concerns among ECB policymakers about its potential impact on inflation and export competitiveness [4] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest a potential rate cut of 22 basis points by the end of the year, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut in upcoming meetings [4] - Analysts predict that the ECB may cut rates again in September, with some expressing concerns about the rapid appreciation of the Euro [4][5] - The International Monetary Fund reported a slight decrease in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, while the Euro's share increased to 20.1%, the highest since the end of 2022 [4]