欧央行按下降息“暂停键”，拉加德称外部风险仍高

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, ending a series of seven consecutive rate cuts, with the deposit rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the current interest rates are in a reasonable range and that monetary policy is supporting the goal of achieving a 2% medium-term inflation target [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the ECB is likely to reassess the situation in September, with more complete data and tariff developments providing a basis for policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - The ECB has warned that external risks remain high, particularly due to escalating trade tensions and exchange rate fluctuations, which could hinder corporate investment [2] - Lagarde noted that stronger euro and higher tariffs are expected to make corporate investment more challenging, reflecting market concerns about the outlook for recent US-EU trade negotiations [2] - The ECB is adopting a cautious approach, preferring to wait for clearer signals before making further policy decisions, as indicated by various analysts [2] Group 3 - The eurozone economy shows resilience driven by domestic demand, supported by a strong labor market, rising real incomes, and robust private sector balance sheets [3] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable at around 2%, with core inflation pressures easing and wage growth slowing, reducing the risk of price increases [3] - Analysts believe that the current interest rate levels provide space for the ECB to remain observant, with expectations that rates will remain stable until autumn unless significant changes in inflation or growth prospects occur [3]